Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,278$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(122 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(0.535 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(36.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,234$ on 2020-06-08

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,879$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(455 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,111,231.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 158.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,111,231.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,080$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(19.6 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,645.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 101.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,645.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,700$ on 2020-06-08

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,265$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(929 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,174.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.6)}}\) (asimptote \(12,174.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $715$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{642.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(642.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,751$ on 2020-06-08

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,106$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(70.2 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,247.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 87.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10,247.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $88$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(10.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 63.8)}}\) (asimptote \(124.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,481$ on 2020-06-08

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,104$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(0.382 \times 10^{0.048t}\) (doubling rate \(6.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,912.6}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 71.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,912.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $59$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(0.00875 \times 10^{0.054t}\) (doubling rate \(5.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185.4}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 76.0)}}\) (asimptote \(185.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $926$ on 2020-06-08

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,444$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(523 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{299,854.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 125.9)}}\) (asimptote \(299,854.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,271$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(84.9 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,665.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,665.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,798$ on 2020-06-08

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,101$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(52.3 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,640.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 64.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,640.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(0.753 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(30.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-08

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $567$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(27.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{586.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 57.0)}}\) (asimptote \(586.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5$ on 2020-06-08

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $296$ on 2020-06-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 79%
Guinea recovered 24%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $839$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(80.4 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{866.5}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(866.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $70$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(20.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66.5}{1 + 10^{-0.089 (t - 13.6)}}\) (asimptote \(66.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $84$ on 2020-06-08

Guinea⮸

Population $13,132,795$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,216$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(422 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,510.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,510.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.73 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 27.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,275$ on 2020-06-08